I really enjoyed this book. Although it is about the mathematics of uncertainty, there was a lot in this book to think about from the spiritual perspective.
“Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of the earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favor of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don’t be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worried about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth, remember that you are a black swan.”
Here are some key things to think about and to keep in perspective:
- Let human biasis affect you on the small scale. Avoid them on the large scale like predicting the future of government programs, economics or social factors.
- Be prepared. Since the future isn’t predictable and history isn’t reproducible prepareyourdelf for a black swan.
– Don’t place yourself in front of negative black swans (e.g. investments in insurance, banks, homeland security)
– do not try to plan or predict black swans
– Get infront of positive black swans. Do a lot of little “experiments” or “investments” where there is a huge potential return and little problems with failures.
– repetition is good for learning
- Barbell strategy: 90/10
– invest heavily in conservative markets (bonds)
– dabble aggressively in positive upside markets and do it broadly
- Chance favors the prepared: keep your eyes and ears open
- Seize anything that looks like an opportunity: look for it; meet people and listen
– big cities and many people are good for creating serendipitous encouters
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
